EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

FOMC rate decision yesterday fed cut for the third time in as many meetings 75 basis points of cuts this year that’s fresh on the heels of a hundred basis points for the hikes last year but as has become usual or around these types of events the devil is in the details sure pal dropped a remark yesterday that really seemed to catch the ears of many market participants across multiple asset classes and this is something that I think could continue to take a toll we saw a response overnight from China on another matter all-together maybe some early early it’s matter we’re gonna parse through those piece by piece market by market and chart by chart in this webinar I’m going to start off with the risk disclaimer I’m gonna leave this up for about 10 seconds and as per usual this webinar is all about you ladies and gentlemen so setups you have pairs you want to take a look at feel free to fire those my way I will do my absolute best to answer as many as I can we get to the Q&A portion of today’s webinar so that further ado let’s go ahead and get to the charts so I have not been bashful around my bearish USD bias coming into q4 now initially that wasn’t looking very strong the US dollar on the other hand was very strong on the first day of queue for currency Russia’s ups it’s a fresh two year high right there what really made this at this point with hindsight of course what really made this reverse was negative us data it was the manufacturing is M report that we had in early October that initially started this decline since then a string of negative US data has only compelled that move deeper Bears getting a bit more aggressive now the reason that I’ve been bearish is coming into q4 and I’m gonna focus on this chart here off the daily coming into q4 the US dollar was remaining within that rising wedge formation we can even take a step back look at this on the weekly looks maybe even a little more attractive there as this or trying to consider this as a corrective move after the downturn that built in throughout 2017 in the first quarter of 2018 now that started to get priced out as pressure was beginning to show in European politics if you remember it was around last summer or the beginning or just before last summer that Italian elections brought a big bag of risk around the eurozone as the Euro dropped the dollar popped but as we had these runs of strength buyers had a continual response of shying away at or around the highs now one of those reasons something that we’ve already seen come into play earlier today was a tweet from President Trump here and I can do no better than just simply quoting the tweet itself I’d retweeted this one which is kind of rare for me I don’t do a lot of those a lot of the retweets but this one seemed to be especially relevant one second just need to find this my my stream as they call it all right so this was from President Trump not my words people are very disappointed in j-pal and the Federal Reserve fed it’s called it wrong from the beginning too fast too slow they even tightened in the beginning others running circles around them and laughing all the way to the bank dollar and rates are hurting our manufacturers we should have lower interest rates than Germany Japan and all others we are now by far the biggest and strongest country but the Fed puts us at a competitive disadvantage China is not our problem the Federal Reserve is we will win anyways now I bring this up and again anybody who tends my webinars with regularity knows that I really really try to avoid the politics both Democrats and Republicans trade I want to work with both top of that I’m neither a political guy but this matters here because each time that dollar the US dollar has punched up to a fresh eye there’s been a tendency for Trump to send out a tweet similar to what we saw earlier today and that’s what helped USD to break through the bottom of this rising wedge formation earlier in October what we saw yesterday was that bounce that came into play last week almost entirely eradicated out of the matter prices bounced up to that key zone of resistance that we were following that runs between 97 86 97 94 shoty again right here that level had come into play on Friday of last week again Monday again on Tuesday we looked at this in the webinar and then right here yesterday quick flicker of strength in the initial portion of that rate decision followed by a strong bearish move that has yet to end now the way that I read this and the way that it came out to me is initially it sounded as though the Fed was putting on somewhat of a hawkish hold it essentially sounded as though the Fed was not in a position to cut rates unless another crisis came into play but there was a comment dropped by Jerome Powell during the press conference that appeared to be far more important and that comment is right here I even used it with in this morning’s title he had said that the Fed was not going to hike rates unless there was a really significant increase in inflation I’m gonna put this in the chat box for anybody so interested and that’s where I’m discussing that earlier this morning so while the initial impetus around the US dollar was one of strength on the back of no more rate cuts unless we go unless we find ourselves in another crisis type of condition which doesn’t appear to be the case given the S&P set another fresh all-time high yesterday it also looks as though the Fed is not looking to get right back into the saddle on hikes which is somewhat of the fear that we had in July right you know that July rate cut July 31st right here well July 31st was the rate cut look at that strong day and the USD and it continued into the next morning now this is when the Fed basically posed that cut that first cut a decade is a quote-unquote mid cycle adjustment or a insurance rate cut now what ultimately ended up driving is back down a tweet from President Trump he ramped up the the trade tensions with China and now see additional tariffs that brought in equity weakest weakness it brought in weakness into the dollar it lasted for all of about a week but each I’m the dollar has flickered up the fresh eyes President Trump gets right back on his Twitter account and as we’ve seen over the past few years markets have listened and begun to price that end very very quickly so at this stage I’m still bearish on USD as usual I’m not going to take a punt on every major currency parents so trying to pick a couple of spots that remain attractive for strength I have one in particular right now that still looks attractive to me another one that I’ve had to wipe off of that radar entirely so in the effort of transparency let’s go ahead and go with the one that’s worked out the worst for me dollar yen so I was previously holding onto this one and there’s another addendum to this one a BOJ rate decision last night so all the banks kind of indicate that they might even be able to look at even more negative rates if inflation remains lackluster now inflation has been lackluster Japan for like almost 30 years with a couple of little green shoots of hope each of which have been eviscerated but it doesn’t exactly seem like that’s a probable outcome nonetheless markets have cared very little as yen strengthens just continued to show after that FOMC rate decision yesterday now previously going into yesterday I was holding on to this one as a long USD candidate on the basis of price is holding higher highs and higher lows and that was coming in even as the US dollar was very weak through the middle of October the reason that I’m wiping this one away now is we have a key reversal here on the daily chart notice where we had yesterday’s doji leading to an aggressively bearish bar today is pushing below those lows I think at this point we’re at like two or three week lows but when I get something like this an aggressive directional move sometimes called the Mara bosu candle it’s not something that I want to look to fade now there is some possible support potential down here so this could be very dangerous or a dangerous area to look for fresh shorts what might be able to work if it could come into play you can see we’re getting a little bit of support off that Fibonacci level around 1:07 95 if this can bounce back into that key zone that I was previously using for support that had previously given a couple of really strong doses of resistance september/october again later in October if we get a bounce back here for some lower high resistance at the very least keep the door for stops above that that pre-pharmacy high or that FONSI high yesterday in looking for the fade that’s about the only way that I could approach dollar-yen at this point but the long side I have to throw in the towel given the reaction we’ve seen around FOMC over the past twenty three hours dollar Ian’s no longer so attractive to the upside my stark ended more attractive to the downside Pete Ian strength overnight with risk off you know it seemed as though this even started a price in a little bit before that now I was gonna go through a post-mortem here on the S&P 500 but that was Oh 500 that’s when this report began making its way around markets now this is key because of what happened in the S&P 500 which has been tracking fairly well with dollar yen but in the sp500 we had that fresh all-time high that was set like just after FOMC we even held water going into the overnight session but it was Oh 500 this morning when this thing started to come undone you know in and that syncs up very very well with this report here so it looks as though China has learned to play trump anomic s– which is wait for a rate decision wait for the Fed to cut equity markets are gonna go up and then it’s time to throw some water on trade deal hopes that seems like that’s what happened this morning now I believe the comment or or the illusion was in essence that China doubts that a long-term trade deal as possible with Trump this isn’t something that we haven’t seen before the fear that I have is the reaction after that FOMC rate decision yesterday and whether or not this turns into a bigger or larger scale reversal the only motive that I have at this point on the sp500 is to continue to play swings we got a pullback combined with some support showing off of that prior all-time high that come into play in July so at this point topside swings are the only thing that I have my radar now if this level gives way I’m looking for that 3,000 level to provide some follow-through support at which point a bounce up to 30 26 that prior all-time high currents on a support that could reopen the door for short side swing exposure as usual or as I’ve been talking about I think that there are more attractive options for short equity plays I look at those a little bit later but key of which is higher beta issues or smaller cap issues the Russell to you or maybe even the nasdaq-100 but let’s get back to FX I want to parse through these USD pairs and we’ll get to some of these additional markets okay so US dollar right now that’s a port that come into play just a couple of weeks ago still there see where sellers have shied away from a retest of that low now to me it looks like this is a calendar issue where we’re in essence just waiting on NFP tomorrow we get the most recent job report tomorrow we had PCE come out this morning less than 24 hours after the Fed 1.7% so there’s not that really significant inflation that Powell had talked about yesterday but given the motive in this move it does appear as those sellers are not looking for a showdown at that support level with FOMC on the radar for tomorrow so it seems like this or excuse me with NFP on the radar for tomorrow so it really does seem as though this NFP release is a bit more loaded than usual because of how basically punting on future rate moves now even though Powell punted on future rate moves that doesn’t mean the markets are going to be setting it up with curiosity we could already see this is the 10-year yield 10-year yield after yesterday quick drop and so far continued throughout the session 10-year yield has just budged down to like three we close to e close so rates markets already appeared to be pricing in another cut even though Powell said what he said yesterday and indicating the bank is not going to cut unless there’s another crisis at hand right now I’m looking at the CME Fed watch probabilities notice there’s a twenty two point nine percent chance of one more cut of a 25 basis point cut at that December rate decision I believe that’s what’s getting priced in right now that u.s. dollar weakness lower Treasury yields etc now where this comes home to roost isn’t looking at some of these short USD scenarios or short USD setups euro dollars in a rather tough spot we did get that quick run with buyers again shying away from the resistance zone setting just just ahead at 111 87 to 112 12 the support level that I looked at on Tuesday around 110 82 that came into play helped to hold the lows around farm C after another earlier dose of that and in the early portion of this week at this stage I want to focus on this one with a much shorter term type of objective bit of support coming through on this prior bearish trend line projection follow-through support showing that the 11:45 Fibonacci level I think this is something to keep the door for a short term set looking for price to run into that resistance zone 111 87 to 112 12 now I’m not super confident on the odds of a break out of that zone because I mean it’s just been a really really big zone on the both support and resistance side of the matter but it’s possible given that we have a pretty loaded scenario around the US dollar right now so what I’m gonna look to do is first scale at 1187 stop the breakeven and then I want to see if I get a second scale at 1212 might even nudge the stop up a little bit more at that point and then I want to look for prices to move back up towards fresh three-month highs run between around 1 1251 1265 I think this one could remain very interesting on the long side especially because of how many folks are bearish on a fundamental basis cable been fall on this one on the long side we saw that 130 resistance inflection on Tuesday built into a bull flag prices begin a tiptoe out of that bull flag ahead of the Fed and we have another quick run up to the 130 spot towards the 130 spot with buyers shying away just about 25 pips inside of that level again I think my only mo on this set up right now is short-term in nature trying to keep risk very very very tight in the events this whole thing comes undone it could be on the back of brakes at headlines POW headlines trying to trade deal headlines who knows but that level of short-term resistance that we looked at on Tuesday can now be incorporated for near-term support and that’s I have it confirmed between two different Fibonacci levels around the 128 90 to 120 895 area a pullback to that zone opens the door for stops below the FONSI swing yesterday with targets directed back up towards that 1:30 spot similar to Eurodollar with 1187 to 1212 i’m not incredibly bullish on a breakthrough upon the next attempt at that resistance but like i’ve talked about especially on this pair a couple of different times this month particularly when we were setting a support just about three weeks ago surprises can help surprises can hurt that’s a trader I want to simply try to put myself in a position where those surprises might be able to help me a little bit more than hurt me so similar to Euro I’m not gonna let that brick wall of resistance completely de nominate for cap the possible top and then I might be able to get out of the setup so I want to look at 130 is a simple scale out type of operation maybe even nudging the stop up and then I want to look for breakout logic on the remainder of the position inside of that and again this is assuming a support entry off that 128 91 2895 area I could look for a quicker profit target right here around 120 950 current area there showing resistance on this hourly bar but it’s also a price that are coming to play right back here that’s quick swing high just about a week ago so still like it to the long side but it needs to clean up its act a little bit before I could set this up properly alright moving on dollar cad okay so we also had a BOC rate decision yesterday BOC similarly was pretty evasive around there near-term plans but the general take away that it was dovish and that could be seen real visibly with the cad weakness that had just jumped into the market yesterday now we had talked about the confluent support the longer-term doc drop here on Tuesday where there’s a few different things going on in like the 30 or 40 pips setting underneath current price action or current price action at the time the 130 psychological level now looms large so large that when sellers were very in control of this thing in July we couldn’t even get a retest of that level sellers we gonna shy away like 20 and 15 then about 10 pips before 130 came back into play which brings us to that July swing low that comes in just about 15 pips north of the 130 psychological level as you see we also have a trendline projection this was actually traded below temporarily during Tuesday or excuse me last week and then coming into this week and then at 1:30 65 we have a key Fibonacci level of interest can be found by taking the 2016 high drawing that down to the 2017 swing low that 130 65 is 38.2% retracement of that major move now when I looked at this on Tuesday as I shared with you I was still bearish but I was looking for resistance to show within this zone as you could see did not show in this Zone price dropped directly out of that and moved to the next area of resistance potential around 1:30 to the response there has been pretty interesting however that 132 print came into play right around FOMC yesterday which was followed by a reversal as USD Bears came back into the mix and then prices pushed right down and it found support off that 130 132 level so I’m still keeping this on the short side of the US dollar especially given the drivers that we had yesterday and this isn’t in a position where I could still work with that is very logical reason as to why buyers or tsukimi sellers pull back on the throttle around 130 132 we’re still relatively close to that resistance but if we chart this on a shorter term basis we could see where buyers Orsini were sellers not exactly been making a mark notice I’m not it’s not a five-minute chart but Steve progressions are higher highs higher lows higher highs support prior resistance around current lows I think this one’s gonna run for a little while longer into the u.s. session or into the latter portion of the US session I don’t look for resistance a little bit deeper around 130 175 right where we had these swings coming into play earlier this morning get a little bit of CAD data tomorrow to knock cat jobs cat jobs are next Friday but I believe its manufacturing PMI is out of Canada that’s due on the calendar for tomorrow but nonetheless keeping this on the short side of the radar looking to fade that pullback that snap back they showed yesterday around dueling BOC and FOMC rate decisions okay long side of the dollar already looked at dollar yen that one’s off my radar at this point unless I’m looking at a short side fade love interest however Aussie so previously I was trying to pick Aussie resistance off of this zone that runs FINRA 6860 up to around sixty eighty three quarters notice that did not come into play quick break out around out for him see yesterday’s that dollar weakness came into the matter go out to a daily chart however there we go and have a trendline projection connecting the December 2018 swing high to the April 2019 song high which did a great job of catching the July swing high and as of today we have a kiss off of that trendline projection combined with a show of selling pressure now this bar still isn’t completed we still have a few hours to go until the end of the session but if this does end up showing me a shooting star formation which is in essence long wick sitting on top a bearish body it’s kind of like a bearish version of an inverted hammer this is the kind of thing I could use to link into a short position now the complication at that point would be the fact that my stop has to go above the eye of the shooting star that’s like sixty nine thirty it’s already like 43 pips away so I would in essence need this to come down to retest those swing lows that showed around the morning star formation on Friday and early portion of this week that’s around sixty eight fifteen I get it down there I’m looking a little bit closer to one to risk/reward ratio but I still like this one on the long side of the dollar even with that pop that we had yesterday given the follow-through resistance to show off that trendline projection all right I see on this one which works beautifully because this was the next one in the chain q dollar so I have this in a similar spot albeit that I just in full disclosure I don’t have as good of a fuel for this one at least in my opinion is what I have on Aussie right now but that long term level of resistance around sixty four and a quarter that we looked at previously and this was the October 2018 swing low that resistance has held very well I’m on a 4-hour chart so you can see where we have these piano keys that have printed over the last last few for our bars piano keys strong move down strong move up strong move down I mean so to me this is just really good recognition of a strong level of resistance at play it’s at 64 and a quarter last October swing low so this keeps the door for short side fades this is gonna stay on the long side of the US dollar for me until we see that group of swing highs from October get taken out around 6435 6436 nonetheless it does offer a more moderate risk outlay and looking for that short side swing with the different targets back down into that zone around 63 and a quarter up around 60 350 that my friends is what I have on the US dollar so natural question dollars breaking down to four more what’s up with gold you know just did full disclosure I’m not super excited about the move that we seen gold so far because while the dollar has pushed down to fresh lows Gold still staying it still remains a bit not as bullish as I’d like to see I would have liked to see that October swing high at least tested a bit deeper or more aggressively around that dollar drubbing around the the the the threat of you know prolonged trade talks with China that simply hasn’t happen or simply has a price dance Allah it leads me to believe that this thing might meander for a little while longer now with that being said under absolutely no circumstances do I want to look at the shore side of this as I said earlier I want to try to put myself in positions where surprises can help me a lot more than they can hurt me and in this case it feels like the short side of the it feels like surprises that could hurt a lot especially given the bullish motive that’s built into this thing over the past year but the congestion the digestion that we have in gold right now is not out of place remember we had a three month period earlier this year from February going into June where this falling wedge had formed and at the same the same type of thing back then a lot of folks are asking oh well is the Bulls running gold over is this little flare done a resounding no began to show up in May and June well as the Fed was shuffling a bit more dovish until eventually we got into July August got that first rate cut in a decade this thing just blasts off so prices have begun to meander outside of that bull flag formation there is a significant swing higher here at 1520 but we’re still kind of within that danger zone where we’re inside of those those prior October swing highs we’re sitting around that Fibonacci level this is the 61.8% retracement of the 2012 to 2015 major move so I got two ways to go about this either one I could continue to look for pullbacks playing support trying to preempt the flag break or given the fact that prices are already trading outside of the flag I could look for a topside breakout above those October highs quick run-up to 1527 stop the breakeven maybe even initial scale and then I look for the for break out another profit target area around 1535 after that 1550 comes to play so I’m not a huge fan on the price actively seen gold over the last 24 hours nonetheless I really only want to take this thing in one direction speaking of flags they’re beginning to give way WTI crude oil had a pretty interesting one and I was looking at that Bear Flag formation that had been brewing in there and this thing really got tested earlier this week notice where price action was rubbing up on the resistance side of that formation Thursday Friday Monday well they just now started to break down initial stop is down at the support level that we looked at on Tuesday 54 56 up to 55 flat but notice where that support was getting like a diminished diminishing marginal response out of buyers until eventually we started to break through the bottom side of the flag so at this point the play is fairly textbook pullback to resistance at prior support allowing for stops above the 55 57 Fibonacci level looking for short side themes to come right back into play look for price to move towards a 5237 swing oh there’s a couple of stops along the way that could be used like 53 in a quarter for instance could be a nearby profit target to work with okay now as I mentioned a little bit earlier there’s a couple of equity markets that I think could be more interesting for sure side plays and we have an S&P 500 and that it’s part of a bigger story I really do think that we are seeing something around ETFs in particular where passive investing is creating a bit of a disconnect across equity markets as in where the sp500 is maybe even a little bit more bullish than it should be while other indices may be eating a little less love because they’re not getting as much flow from passive investing and passive investing types of vehicles are just driving ETFs the nasdaq-100 is one of those for me that I think could be really interesting if we do see this risk aversion continue with aggression the highs were formed earlier this week did help to hold through FOMC a prices have jumped right back down towards that previous all-time high so from this perspective it does have a lot of similarity with the SPF under setup but I looked at just a moment ago but I think this one could lend itself a bit more attractively to bearish breakout potential given that we have that big big level of support potential setting just underneath that runs around 79 75 so on this one I can in essence look for breakdowns below that 80 35 level if I wanted to be a bit more conservative wait for 80 12 then look for short side breakout logic back down to 79 75 small caps are where I think we could maybe pick a little bit more aggressively and I know I’ve looked at this one before but while the Nasdaq and the sp500 both rush up to fresh all-time highs ahead of the Fed notice that the Russell two did not come anywhere near that as a matter of fact we haven’t even recovered the bulk of that q4 sell-off while both the SP and the Nasdaq both large cap issues have but at this stage we have a reversal off of a lower high and this could keep the door open for range mean reversion types of strategies look for prices to move back towards that 150 level it’s on the IWM the Russell 2000 ETF moving back towards that 150 level after which range support comes into play around 146 after 147 that my friends is what I have for today all right once you kind of question you ladies and gentleman have let me know what’s on your mind Pete my man I appreciate this thanks for being on the mic today always love being on a day after that phone see it’s a good time to be looking at trade setups especially when there’s those situations there could be a divergence between price action and what your pal said yesterday kind of like we’re seen in Treasury yields at the moment I’m thinking a little further greenback retrace after yesterday’s last night’s heavy drop in FP on Dec 4 entries yeah exactly I mean that’s one of the beautiful parts about following price action you know so closely as you can see these things getting priced in I mean there was definitely a motive move that was getting price sent around FOMC yesterday but you know even around that announcement this morning that China was not too optimistic on a trade deal I mean the dollar was basically just barbed wire back and forth health support on net it’s been up since then but yeah it certainly looks as though sellers are shying away from this thing after a pretty concerted downside run yesterday and you know given the calendar make sense as to why there’s a big driver coming up in at 8:30 tomorrow morning dr. mckennah hey James how’s it going everything is beautiful my friend except the weather weather’s not nice here today but it’s part and parcel of living in New York and the autumn slash opening days of winter can’t believe I just Demetrios James regardless someone’s political views and who’s wrong or right I have to feel for JP the bullying he has suffered from Trump is unprecedented tweeter politics is just wrong yeah it’s just age we live in my friends you know it’s um you know I often wonder you know like is this just a phase or is this you know a step and some type of evolutionary track and I have a hard time at this point buying that it’s just a phase someone’s gonna go away it feels like it’s something that’s kind of here to stay where politics and social items are debated discussed and bandied about over over social media I do not know if there is any end in sight from a training perspective though I’m cool with it because you know if I could go back 20 years ago and until a young James Stanley like hey one day there is going to be a president that will move markets at will with a cell phone I wouldn’t believe you I would not have believed that at all for Pete definitely looking to see this cat streak diminishing reinterred dollar cat short yeah I mean it’s been encouraging so far you know Boutros and i were watching this one specifically during FOMC together yesterday or we were watching it yesterday yesterday rushing at the same time yesterday and he was looking off that 1:30 to 4:00 for fades I was following the same level you know follow-through price action so far been pretty encouraging for that I just don’t know if what we have right now in the cards after the BOC is enough ammunition to bring that 130 tests into play you know that’s like a step five type issue though right step one or two which I’m pretty cool with working with I think I think the case is building for short side swings for sure especially if we get a doji today after yesterday’s big leap a little coming into play I think that door could remain open looking for short side swings ways to trade that USD weakness from peat like that fable of 30 – thank you sir I know you were probably on it as well from Nikita there’s wedges for me can we go through Kiwi dollar thank you hopefully the Kiwi look we did a little earlier was adequate if you have any other questions don’t hesitate to let me know from from Koran dollar Swiss please yeah I don’t have a lot of great ideas around Swiss tea at the moment we did get that announcement a little earlier today that this was frock was too strong mmm maybe even like you know veiled threats of intervention but as you can see here that’s very little in the dollar Swiss pot as Swiss strength has just remained so you know that’s not the type of thing that I want to follow like I don’t want to jump in the hundred pips later hoping there might be some continuation on a comment that came out a little earlier is already kind of stale but 9850 could be a good swing level or an interesting swing level this is a level that’s held lows through a couple of different iterations going back to like earliest September you know I think similar to what we have in dollar cad with sellers shying away from that 130 spot previously in July with US dollar or DXY shying away from the lows 9750 i think a similar type of motive is showing right now where sellers are just pulling back on the throttle before a big support level comes to play this is generally the type of thing I could look for when trying to set up a fade and if you look at this on the hourly chart there we go see there’s a veritable war going on here inside of the spread Bulls the Bears slugging it out seeing who takes control I don’t know who’s gonna take control I can’t read you know the minds everybody that’s in here but you know generally the way I’ll try to look at this you know and again going back to that comment that I said a little earlier where I try to put myself in a position where surprises can help me more than they might be able to hurt me given proximity to support proximity these recent lows this is generally something where I’m gonna try to err on the side of the range or meaner version and basically look at the price to meander back towards 99022 after which 9950 could come back into play once we get to 9950 all bets are off though as we’ve seen there’s been some pretty considerable trepidation around that parity handle series of lower highs that have developed in there ever since it came back into play early October yeah another good point here from general smiler in addition to NFP tomorrow there’s also us is a manufacturing PMI data at ten previous disappointing manufacturing PMI data and severe USD reaction previously as you mentioned so it could be a one-two punch tomorrow between NFPA manufacturing PMI yes sir for sure there’s there’s also the potential for some some mayhem there which is why I didn’t want to get too deep on that data print as well the one-two punch could go in two different directions where we get socked with the left then get hit by right where you know maybe NFP comes out you know very very negative we had an extension of dollar weakness on the back of lower rate expectations around the Fed is in response to maybe getting a little closer to that crisis type of dynamic they were mentioning yesterday you know followed by an improvement in manufacturing PMI data because those PM eyes can be gonna be pretty tricky with trends best case scenarios like you lined out as if both of them come out in one direction either all for dollar strength or offer another weakness if I had to err on the side I picked all the weaknesses looking for look for negative prints and each now because I’m cynical because that’s been the been the general tonality of reason yeah Quran mentions the point right here only because uh dollar Swiss only because that’s gonna be talking about CHF being too strong yeah that’s that’s what I fear you know they made that comment and this was he just got or the franck got to get stronger Swiss he dropped so if anything I want to take the other side of that you know what the faded if I could get off support even better I could work with that for peak NiCad streak diminished CAD weakness diminish eesh lol just look my post it’s okay man I make this mistake sometimes too it’s the the operative dealing with double negatives and cross pagers for Pete 19:49 s103 97 96 that were you looking for the lower targets the big level for me on DX why is 96 47 and here I could even we’ve got a little time but keeping these webinars really short of late so let’s sink our teeth into one so I’m trying to find good levels to work with on a longer term basis or on a bigger picture basis especially when we’re getting like the potential for something new to happen and know Pete’s point is you know we basically have the potential for a dollar breakdown here given the backdrop given the mode of given the technical formation I’m always gonna err on the side of bigger is better or bigger picture is more important the level that keeps coming in is important right now I pick it off this 2011 to 2017 major move is that 96 47 that’s a pretty big one that’s simply the 23.6% retracement of that 2011 to 2017 major move I had last come into play I did a great job of setting support in June we try to blow it a little later in the month but blast came back into play for his trading day of July if the bottom falls out of USD I want to look for prices to move they’re going out or maybe even a little more big picture there are a few different levels of interests that are that are all still pretty nearby I got a confluent zone that runs 95 86 9i 604 that was the zone that helped to arrest those June swing lows a little bit deeper from there we have some pretty good symmetry on these lows around 95 2095 psychological level becomes a stopping point or a potential stopping point but this is the next big confluent zone that I have about around 94 and a quarter from 94 35 good zone all much much lower somewhere right now Nikita says great setup for WTI be back next week have a great weekend thank you Nikita I really appreciate that long-distance high-five Tia uh Todd hey good to see you Todd back in here of always to get my friend hey can you talk about how you would your analysis to look for good finger trap trades yeah sure like every one of these trends or every one of these themes that I’ve looked at it’s something that I’m open to trapping and that’s basically how I’m gonna start my day tomorrow I’m gonna look at these various themes so like topside gyro potential right I’m gonna try to fit it in and see if I can find the finger trap setup to get excited about if I can’t find anything across these USD majors I’m just gonna go over to some of these young parents that have been really really volatile of late and basically just play between crosses you know so I lament it a little earlier the you know the two sided nature of markets that we trade in FX make it a little more difficult for you know speaking or narrative matters but you know it’s it’s kind of like that old cliche saying where it’s like five o’clock somewhere where it’s beer-thirty somewhere there’s always a bull market in some in some market and some currency there’s always a theme or trend to work with somewhere if I can’t find any majors I pick on you in pairs usually from Richard Angeles are Trump’s tweets which move markets banned by Twitter I don’t think so I think that what Twitter banned yesterday was just political ads and I don’t even think that’s a big part of their revenue stream I think that’s a very minor minor and the only infinitesimal part of the Twitter business it’s much much more important for Facebook’s business and that’s been the big scuttlebutt today so whether or not Facebook’s looking at adopting a similar policy because they have a much much stronger ad based business than what Twitter does and they’re pretty deep in political advertisements for Facebook to make that announcement it’s gonna be it’s gonna be considerably larger impact that revenue stream which is one of the reasons many people don’t think that Zuckerberg is gonna kind of gonna swallow that pill from AlterNet please take another look at oil resistor size swing thank you yeah it’s a pretty good one I think it was that level it had already given us a bit of support it’s like 54-49 and I could keep this one real super simple I think there’s just two fit or trace mints I say super simple when I show you all these lines sorry about that I think there’s there’s really there’s two Fibonacci retracements of relevance here the first one is charted along that q4 sell-off it was simply last q4 high down to a ski four level the second one is inside of that that’s the response move I could basically take that same swing low from right here and draw that up to the April swing high and that’s where I’m getting that that 5450 ish level go down like an hourly chart we could see where it already did a great job of helping to catch lows previously helped to set resistance but pull back there at the least keep my risk outlay a bit tighter and I won’t feel like I’m chasing the train has already left the station but put that back on the chart that I had initially shared with you right in here the full resistance zone would be like 54 56 at around 55 flap goods under with from Milton bullion what will it take to trigger the next move up companion that’s a great question if I had to guess from here it would be something breaks it related next week what exactly I don’t know but it had a quick look at pounding a little earlier and just fell below that 140 figure that 140 psychological oh that’s a pretty big one in pound yen but I’m fine better chart there we go it’s a little bit better with this one yeah so we tested above that 140 level just could not hold so the fact that we have a pullback after a failed bid above 140 it’s not too surprising for me but the I think the trap here is getting to ingratiated with this range and a pair that has a tendency to really really trend hard when it does get into a directional type of move so with this one my my MO is to basically take a Trin side bias into trading that mean reversion scenario you know version or range bound type of scenario meaning I look to buy support scale at resistance maybe even move the stop to break-even and then look for a topside breakout a continuation of that bigger picture trend if I had to guess the driver though it probably has to be Bragg’s related now with that said if it hasn’t shown up before next Thursday there is a BOE super Thursday on the calendar which is just like a week from now so that’s updated inflation reports that’s it’s a rate decision and it’s also an accompanying press conference in the past those have had a tendency to take on a very negative tone with a brief Pound BOE has not been very hawkish or positive around brings it at all but you know again it’s it’s one of those things that feels very very unpredictable so I wouldn’t want to say oh well the vo is always negative so I’m gonna sell it around the BOE I have a tendency to think that some of that’s already gonna be priced in or has been priced Center is getting priced in at the moment for Pete great point and I Asim could be a shredder with data after NFP it always got to be careful careful careful I know when I first got into trading macro markets you know cuz in equities it’s fairly simple a lot of these macro releases come out before after the bell we don’t get a lot of stuff intra Bell and then a lot of the earnings reports a lot of those big fundamentals drivers I mean for equity for a stock it’s coming out when outside outside of market hours right so I remember when I was first getting in you know more incorporated with macro data trading 20 four or five markets you know I would look at this as like a like a pathway of opportunity I I don’t see any opportunities I just see things that could take me out things could surprise me you know so again that kind of goes into my mentality or my approach of trying to put myself in a position where surprises can help me more than they can hurt me because I don’t expect much positivity off of the way that a calendar is going to flow or the way that a certain announcement is going to come out I always try to assume worst-case scenario assume the worst to hope for the best fight for the spread in between the really good point here and I actually see it made by a couple of different people Trump is Twitter’s revenue stream yeah it’s always been funny when those issues have come up in the past of where like maybe some journalists suggest so you know maybe Twitter should shut down president Trump’s account I think that I think that was even something that a congressperson had said in the past put names out there come off like some kind of partisan int but yeah I mean that’s that’s kind of their business is engagement and part of their business model is engagement I don’t think that they’re gonna look to diminish or decrease that anytime soon okay last comment or remark of the day okay I got a couple here especially inflation looks poor data tonight yeah but you know I don’t know the Swiss National Bank is that as concerned about inflation as they are disparity right like if we go back to the the euro Swiss story the reason they set the floor in the first place it’s kind of because they were trying to read the tea leaves and saying well hey you know if the eurozone is melting down if the eurozone is in a really rocky spot and investors in Europe want to get out of the euro and get into a safer currency will the Swiss Franck I mean squishin was landlocked by Europe it’s a banking haven to healthy economy makes the Swiss franc look real attractive which is one of the reasons this real strong downside run developed so this was National Bank I mean in their peculiar for a few different ways it’s actually a publicly traded company they actually own a portfolio of stocks it’s an S it’s a hedge fund at this point but I don’t want to treat this National Bank the same way that I treat the Fed where they’re directly responsive or trying to be directly responsive to data because there’s other factors that they have to consider you know in this case Franck gettin strong after threats of intervention combined with a good support level coming into play or nearing into play on dollar Swiss like the odds of looking at a swing short-term in nature but that’s about the best that I can extrapolate with what I have on the cards right now mr. Feeny palm and I’m glad you asked in this one I love talking about Apple James now’s not not going to blow unless Apple gives way thoughts an Apple regards Finney yeah what got me in that Apple call was the discipline around iPhone you know that’s always been the big driver of their business there and there of course trying to diversify the product line getting into getting into other areas that can you know an essence offset that reliance but I mean you’re exactly right and the fact that on a couple of different different key facts here but this thing is basically tracking fairly well the overall exuberance trade you know things were pretty gnarly in q4 of last year but as the Fed got back into the driver’s seat start a promising they’re gonna do whatever they can to continue the expansion Apple has just continued to tear away as far as American corporates this is probably my favorite one and it’s been that way for a while you know from a consumer perspective I’m as Apple doubters I think anybody is Boutros is not pretty Apple doubt as well but love the company love the company but this to me feels like it’s a macro play it really really really does and when we have pretty much all central banks the world around cautious looking at ways to continue the expansion quote-unquote I mean this is you know true in China this is true in the u.s. true in Europe when we have like concerted and coordinated central bank support for global equity markets for global markets in general that’s on the can continue to pad the Alpha bottom-line so yeah I look at this like a macro play I’d rather short the nasdaq-100 cuz there’s 99 other names that aren’t Apple and index but but yeah I mean as we’ve seen in recent declines the q4 decline for the may sell off right because the first couple months this year the Fed was backtracking getting more dovish more dovish more dovish than we got into that that late April early May rate decision a drone pal we’ll wait and see you guys and then equity markets tipped over well Apple did as well you know so it looks like a macro play to me this or with something like this this is something where I’d want to err on the side of bullish bias and maybe look for that next or look at this as a response to that next sell-off that next pullback right so if we do that the SP tipping over on the back of threats or fears around China and maybe this is somewhere I could look to pick up Apple off of some lows like 225 maybe but a trendline projection something like that okay now I gotta take the last question of the day okay good good come here from you saying that 9850 9950 Rafe probably needs to be respected all of the noise yeah exactly I mean just take what the markets giving you until it gives you something else and then adapt I got no reason to believe that range is gonna break until it actually begins to show signs of breaking you know even if it does give a topside push that parity levels lumen very ominously just above just above that resistance so I mean for me it seems like it’s proper motive to continue with that range but that my friends is what I have for today I just want to say thank you so much everybody for your comments for your time I will be back next Thursday excuse me next Tuesday and next Thursday 1 p.m.

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